Expect some people to be multitasking when watching this show and one of the other activities you might be engaging in today: online shopping.
American shoppers are expected to spend nearly twelve and a half billion dollars online today on so-called Cyber Monday.
Spending on Black Friday was also stronger than expected, increasing by seven and a half percent compared to the previous year.
It’s probably too early for retailers worried that inflation could dampen holiday spending.
Join us and learn how the economy and the holiday shopping season are developing.
OUR AND ALLIES RETAIL STRATEGY CONSULTING WITH MCMILLAN DOOLITTLE, CONSULTING EDWARD STUART, EM TAIL ANALYTICS COUNCIL .
I’m really grateful that you all are here today.
SO MARTIN, HOW H`PY ARE YOU AFTER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND?
SO FAR YOU SHOULD BE H`PY.
>> BECAUSE I BELIEVE THAT DESPITE ALL THE REASONS PEOPLE TELL THEM, I MORE CONSUMERS SAY WE WANT TO GO OUT AND OVER SHOPPING.
Fought for five days, one Thanksgiving.
That’s because everyone in these polls is pessimistic about the economy, the power of the dollar, and more.
>> THE NUMBERS ARE OKAY.
THERE IS A PARADOX.
WHEN PEOPLE ARE SAD.
YOU WILL SHOPPING.
To make them feel better.
STUDIES ON DEPRESSION PEOPLE WHO ARE DEPRESSED CONSUMERS MORE MEDIA.
We conducted a large study for retailers.
CONSIDERATION OF TRAFFIC AND WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LONG PERIOD.
AND WHEN PEOPLE SHOP WHEN IT’S CLOUDY.
>> SO CLOUDY WEEKEND, THAT’S A.
RETAIL SALES AND STEWART, YOU KNOW, GDP ACROSS THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN RISING.
Consumer spending has increased.
WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THIS KIND OF PARADOX.
INFLATION COULD STAMP A LITTLE.
THEIR SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM OUTLOOKS SHORT TERM MEANS INFLATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FOR MANY THINGS. FOOD AND GASOLINE PRICES ARE MUCH LOWER, NOT NECESSARILY GOOD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT, BUT GOOD FOR THE CONSUMER.
>> EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE STILL STRONG.
AS MARTIN SAYS: “PEOPLE FEEL BAD, BUT THE BASIC ECONOMY, THE REAL ECONOMY, IS QUITE GOOD.”
AND SO YOU HAVE THE MEANS.
AND NOW THAT PRICES AREN’T RISING SO QUICKLY AND SOME PRICES, FOR EXAMPLE TELEVISIONS AND ENTERTAINMENT EQUIPMENT, ARE ACTUALLY LEADING VERY CLEARLY >> THERE’S RETAIL HERE.
So we don’t see the headlines of people camping out in front of stores, breaking windows and tearing up everything to get electronics and T VISA Black Friday.
WHAT BEFORE?
>> Black Friday continues to evolve over the years, especially due to the pandemic.
IT’S REALLY SH`ED IN A NEW WAY WHERE THEY WERE REALLY CRAFTED ONLINE AND OFFLINE.
Nobody was trampled.
AS FAR AS I AM ON BLACK FRIDAY.
But more and more consumers are changing their spending.
I don’t know about you, but last week I took off my turkey, put on the football, and then scrolled, and that doesn’t mean bricks and mortar are going away. There are still certain things I can do in terms of experience and service. It cannot be reproduced online.
BUT IT’S REALLY ABOUT AD`TATION AS A RETAILER.
HOW CUSTOMERS WANT TO BUY, WHEN AND HOW THEY WANT TO BUY.
>> SO MARTIN, I mean, is there still the idea that this is the start of the holiday shopping season, or does it start earlier like Halloween when the stores have all their sales?
IS IT JUST MORE OF YOUR THING?
There is >> a terribly strong tradition that would be very difficult to break.
And I think it’s the person who said one of the interesting things.
IS THAT BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE TURNED INTO A FIVE DAY EVENT.
And in the data I played with, about a third of people said they wouldn’t shop in the next five days.
A third party will say one day and another third party will say 2 or more.
So, I mean, it’s really as widespread as it is today, the so-called Cyber Monday, its doors.
IT WILL BE A GOOD CYBER MONDAY IN A GOOD PLACE WHERE THE ECONOMY IS.
I THINK SO.
AND OTHER THINGS ARE H`PENING IN THE POST-PANDEMIC ECONOMY.
“People don’t quite mean that they buy things, but rather that they buy experiences.”
SO THE RESTAURANTS ARE FULL.
The hotels are full.
>> PLANES ARE FULL.
So during the pandemic, people change, but things and houses change.
AND AFTER THE PANDEMIC, PEOPLE ARE BUYING, SO YOU MAY NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH RETAIL SALES IN THE BIG INDIVIDUAL STORES.
BUT PEOPLE WHO HAVE A JOB IN RESTAURANTS OWN RESTAURANTS WILL DO PRETTY WELL.
>> AND THAT YOU MENTION THE BRICKS AND MORTAR WHICH, YOU KNOW, FIGHT A LITTLE MORE.
You’re on the phone instead of going there.
SO WHAT ARE THE BRICKS AND MORTAR?
Do malls need to do anything to attract people there?
>> I got to the point, as you know, you mentioned “experiences” and we’re seeing malls really taking shape and turning retail experiences into more experiences.
ALL THERE ARE CERTAIN THINGS THAT YOU CANNOT DUPLICATE ONLINE.
I SO THAT YOU GET HELP IMMEDIATELY.
CAN TOUCH AND FEEL THE PRODUCT.
MORE AND MORE POP-UP STORES HAVE TO GET CREATIVE WITH THEIR SPACES.
You know, some of the department store spaces are empty.
So when you convert that there are too many subdivisions, for example a retail store, an apartment or a gym, different races get people out and give a reason to spend more time and more of their wallet in person.
>> MARTIN, how are things going at a local mall?
Given the broader retail economy today, is it really that important?
SO.
>> I think malls in general probably aren’t booming, but some are.
What they all or the stores in the mall need to do is think about entertainment.
It is an aspect of shopping and facilitating group shopping, making it a social experience.
>> AND STEWART WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THE BIGGER ECONOMIC NUMBERS BEFORE.
Given that inflation is reining in, do you think the Fed is starting to think about it?
LOWER INTERESTS?
You really think that’s the number one question.
And it says more hope than prediction.
BUT >> My way of thinking as a macroeconomist is that the inflation we had was not caused by cheap money and budget deficits.
THE INFLATION WAS CAUSED BY CHIP SHORTAGES AND THE PANDEMIC.
And so raising interest rates was not the cure.
But it’s about slowing things down, like housing construction, like big entry items.
And I hope that the Fed starts to change its thinking and that the Fed should cut rates sooner than I did.
A STORY TALK WITH AUSTAN GOOLSBEE, THE CHICAGO FED. THEY REPRESENT WHO IS ON THE MIKE COMMITTEE WHO DECISIONS, OR 80 SAY LIKE WE STILL DON’T KNOW IF WE HAVE LANDED THIS PLANE ALREADY.
It doesn’t seem like it exists to me.
>> I’ll tell you this.
I think I won’t use any terminology.
JUST USE THE CYA, ITS POLITICAL AD.
They are trying to protect their reputation and not be attacked.
IF THERE IS A RECENT INFLATION ATTACK.
BUT I HOPE THAT THERE WILL BE MORE PRESSURE, POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PRESSURE.
VERY QUESTION PRESSURE TO LOWER INTEREST RATES.
And I think that’s going to be really good for the economy in the long run.
All right, AMANDA, what other pressures do you see keeping sales below desired levels?
>> Well, to a certain extent we are a retail strategist than you think, and then you answer these questions. We constantly work with retailers. Given the challenges of headwinds we have seen in recent years, there is no cost of inflation.
We see them slacking off a bit.
But this is something that has increased over time.
WORK IS MORE EXPENSIVE THAN EVER.
We look at the consumer.
You don’t necessarily have the same savings as you did a few years ago.
ALL STUDENT DEBT LOANS ARE TRULY REPAYABLE.
And so both retailers, consumers and viewers experience a range of different events.
AND SO IT’S A NEW ENVIRONMENT.
Of course, they will weather the storm just like any other company out there.
MARTIN, what about things in the city like labor shortages or, you know, new laws in the city of Chicago that affect minimum wage and sick time?
THINGS LIKE THIS.
>> Well, one certainly assumes that this will put additional pressure.
SECRETS ARE PRIVACY LAWS.
Don’t let yourself talk about it so much.
BUT RETAILERS NOW HAVE LARGE DATABASES.
They increasingly need to be able to mine and use them.
And how these can be mined, used and shared is a big question.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING NOW, SUCH LEGAL THINGS.
SO YES, THE HIGHEST IN WASHINGTON.
YES.
HOW THESE DATABASES MAY BE USED.
PRIVACY LAWS.
YES, SOMETHING CONSUMERS WANT TO BE VERY INTERESTED IN.
>> CAN THIS H`PEN?
One voice, one trust in consumers who shop a lot.
>> BE LESS WORRIED ABOUT IT.
AND THE CONSUMERS WHO DON’T.
Well, it’s like you typed something into Google and suddenly everyone knows what you want to buy or everything about you because you see the targeted >> immediately.
So it’s like we’ve been living with this for quite a while.
YES, BY STEWART, I KNOW YOU ARE FROM THE MORE KEYNESIAN STIGLITZ SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS.
What about your reaction to knowing what’s happening?
THE CITY OF CHICAGO IS RAISED AND LIKE THIS NEW PAID MEDICAL LEAVE A MANDATE FOR BUSINESS IN CHICAGO.
MANY PRO-BUSINESS GROUPS SAY.
>> CHICAGOS ECONOMY WILL SUFFER BECAUSE NOW, TO BE REAL ECONOMISTS, THEY SAY ON THIS SIDE AND ON THE OTHER SIDE, BUT OBVIOUSLY RAISE THE MINIMUM WAGES, GIVE PEOPLE MORE MONEY TO SPEND AND >> IMPROVE THE PROFITS OF COMPANIES IN THE US THE ECONOMY HAS DEVELOPED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST DECADES.
So >> This is kind of a little realignment to take money out of the hands of very, very wealthy people and put it into the hands of working people.
AND FOR RETAILERS.
They want working people to have money because middle-income people and poor people spend money.
RICH PEOPLE SAVE MONEY.
So if you’re in retail, you want workers and households to have higher incomes.
AND WHILE WE LOOK FORWARD TO THE HOLIDAY SEASON, PEOPLE UP TO MIDDLE INCOME HAVE ENOUGH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.
Capital income to spend it.
>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE SALES NUMBERS OF THE PAST DAYS, THEY WOULD JUST SAY THAT, AS MARTIN MENTIONED, DESPITE SOME OF THE looming uncertainties, PEOPLE ARE USING THIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO SPEND ON GIFTS TO CREATE MEMORABLE MOMENTS FOR THE FAMILY.
EVEN IN THE AMIDST OF UNCERTAINTY.
IN ORDER.
Well, positive.
>> PREVIOUS HOLIDAY SEASON.
I hope you all had a happy life
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