CBER Report: Improving Southern Nevada’s Economy Linked To The Path Of The Pandemic | Message center

The economy of southern Nevada – like everything else in life today – is strongly tied to the further course of the COVID-19 pandemic and its variants. This is the fundamental theme of the year-end economic forecast report published today by the UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER).

It is the story of an emerging region that has been hard hit by the pandemic. Then, after showing signs of a r -id economic surge through 2021, it evolved into what researchers call a “broken V” sh -ed recovery, partly due to an ongoing pandemic and less than excellent COVID-19 vaccination rates.

“With the economy of southern Nevada heavily reliant on tourism, its prospects are linked to the future path of the coronavirus,” said Andrew Woods, director of CBER. “The continued progress in vaccinating a higher percentage of the population and the lack of variants that can avoid vaccine protection will make economic recovery much more likely.”

CBER officials shared the report and accompanying analysis of the local, state and national economies on Nov. 9 during an Outlook conference in the Strip View Pavilion of the UNLV Thomas & Mack Center. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen virtually delivered the conference keynote address on expectations for the national economy for the coming year.

According to Woods and CBER research director and economist Stephen Miller, local economic indicators point to a slowing but sustained comeback from a pandemic that researchers described in 2020 as an “economic sledgehammer” in southern Nevada.

“In 2019, Las Vegas is a city on the verge of a new era,” says Miller. “Then COVID-19 struck.” But while success in public health will ultimately lead to economic success, there are positive signs. After another wave of the pandemic hit the nation last fall and early 2021, the recovery resumed in March 2021, which, according to Woods, “may have marked the turnaround in the pandemic and thus the economic recovery”.

Forecast of the economy of Southern Nevada in 2022

Across the entire Southern Nevada economy, metrics such as visitor volume, gross gaming revenue, hotel occupancy, and employment are expected to follow a similar pattern: big hits in 2020, followed by an increase in 2021, which is projected through 2022, though slowly, will increase.

For example, after peaking at 33.5% in  -ril 2020, local unemployment fell to 8% by August 2021, removing more than 85% of the initial pandemic surge. Researchers predict that unemployment will continue to fall in 2022.

The general recovery in employment, while encouraging, is lagging behind other local economic indicators. After a 26.5% decline in employment in Southern Nevada from February to  -ril 2020, local employment restored nearly 70% of the jobs lost. Growth should continue, albeit slowly, in 2022, with 3.7% more jobs expected.

The pandemic did not have a material impact on construction trends in Clark County, including employment in the construction industry. Recent high profile projects and healthy new build activity have kept employment in the sector stable, and permits for  -artment buildings and single-family homes are expected to increase by around 5% in 2022.

Tourism index improves

Because the South Nevada economy is so dependent on tourism, it has been harder hit by the pandemic and its future fortunes depend on the health of those who fly, stay, and play here.

Here, too, signs point in the right direction. CBER’s Clark County Tourism Index – which combines gross gaming revenue, hotel / motel occupancy, and McCarran Airport activity – has passed its pre-COVID-19 peak and recouped 125% of its COVID-19 losses.

• Clark County’s gross gaming revenue surged above pre-COVID numbers, rebounding 129% by July 2021 from their  -ril 2020 low. Numbers have declined since then but remain above pre-year levels as of September 2021 COVID levels and are expected to grow by around 2% in 2022.
• Visitor volume has rebounded nearly 80% from its spring 2020 low, and is expected to rebound an additional 19% in 2022 if pandemic conditions continue to improve.

Woods says the unprecedented nature of the pandemic and two years of anomalous economic data are making forecasting more difficult than in previous years.

“Pandemics are rare occurrences and we have relatively few data points to support predictive models,” he says.

Overall, the economic recovery in Southern Nevada in 2021 exceeded the expectations of many analysts. Another wave of the pandemic slowed economic growth in southern Nevada until this fall, but most signs point to a cautiously positive picture in 2022.

CBER Outlook Report

CBER’s bi-annual Outlook report predicts economic trends for the US and Nevada. The data is compiled and analyzed by government employment, gambling and tourism agencies to predict local and national economic trends.