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Business week ahead: central banks, GDP, consumer spending

US consumer spending is expected to have increased in September.


Joe Raedle / Getty Images

WSJ staff

Oct. 24, 2021 3:00 p.m. ET

This week’s US and Eurozone gross domestic product data will show how much economic growth slowed in the third quarter.


US home sales are expected to pick up in September, following the path of existing home sales. Low mortgage rates and the ongoing search for more space to work at home are fueling demand, but rising prices and shortages of inventory have slowed activity in recent months.


US manufacturers were hit by transport bottlenecks and material shortages this year. The September durable goods orders data are likely to reflect the most serious disruptions – particularly in the automotive sector.


The Bank of J -an is expected to review its growth and inflation forecasts and publish a quarterly economic report at the end of a two-day meeting. The bank is likely to put its loose monetary policy on hold as price movements are still sluggish despite inflationary pressures in the US and Europe.

Eurozone inflation rose the fastest in 13 years in September, a phenomenon that European Central Bank officials are likely to dismiss as temporary after the conclusion of a political session on Thursday. “We expect that at this meeting [ECB President

Christine Lagarde

] will take the opportunity to reiterate that the ECB is not alarmed by the recent spike in inflation, and in particular inflation expectations, ”RBC C -ital Markets economists said in a research note.

U.S. gross domestic product growth likely cooled in the third quarter as households and businesses faced supply chain disruptions, rising prices, labor market mismatches, and the delta variant of Covid-19. In the Wall Street Journal’s October Economic Forecast, economists cut third-quarter GDP growth forecasts to an average of 3.1% annualized from 7% in the July poll.


The first estimate of economic output in the euro zone for the three months to September should show a slight slowdown after the strong recovery in the second quarter. While the services sector has been boosted by the lifting of restrictions in many members of the currency area, supply shortages have slowed growth in the manufacturing sector.

US consumer spending is expected to rise in September, driven by rising demand and rising prices for many goods and services. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that Covid-19 cases have declined for most of the month, a development that could particularly help personal services like restaurants and grooms.

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Published in the print edition of October 25, 2021 as “Economic Calendar”.

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