According to United Nations estimates, the world population is now at a record 8 billion people. African nations, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, are the main drivers of this growth, while the populations of many high-income countries are either shrinking or beginning to shrink.
If this trend continues over the next few decades, Africa’s relationship with the rest of the world could change drastically. Here’s why:
In most industrialized countries, including Japan, South Korea and all EU member states, the fertility rate is currently below the replacement level, which is around 2.1 births per woman of childbearing age. This means that not enough babies will be born to replace deaths and consequently the local workforce will not be large enough to fill the jobs of retirees in the future.
Africa, on the other hand, appears to be moving in the opposite direction. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest average fertility rate in the world at 4.6, with Niger topping the list at 6.8 children per woman, followed by Somalia at 6. Congo, Mali and Chad each have fertility rates above 5.
According to UN forecasts The number of Africans will double by 2050 and make up a quarter of the world’s population.
“Compared to its past, for example in the early 20th century, population growth in Africa is not accelerating, in fact it is decelerating, just like the rest of the world,” said Hippolyte Fofack, cChief Economist of the African Export-Import Bank, said DW. “What we are seeing is mainly a rapid decline in the population growth rate of the developed world, with child mortality rates falling sharply in Africa.”
African societies are not only growing rapidly, they are also much younger than in almost any other region. While the average age in Europe is 42.5 years, in Africa it is only 18 years.
But what are the consequences of a demographic boom for Africa and the rest of the world?
Does Africa have enough capacity for a population boost?
According to Fofack, the continent has enough land and resources to support a much larger population. Currently, the population density in Africa is between 45 and 47 people per square kilometer, compared to 117 in Europe and about 150 in Asia.
“Africa needs this demographic expansion for its development,” Blessing Mberu, a senior researcher at the African Population and Health Research Center in Kenya, told DW. “Factories, highways, technologies and infrastructure will not arise by themselves! Someone has to build them, manage them and use them.”
With 6.74 births per woman, Niger has the highest fertility rate in the worldImage: Sports Inc/empics/picture alliance
Africa, ohner of the world’s largest continents has plenty of habitable land for its booming population. According to the UN, the continent hosts about 30% of the world’s mineral reserves, 12% of the world’s oil and 8% of the world’s natural gas reserves. Around 60% of the world’s arable land is in Africa.
“The potential for a larger population is there,” Mberu said. “But the challenge is to provide them with education and jobs.”
“Right now we are seeing uneven development across African nations,” he continued. “In some places, investments in education, health and business are concentrated in urban areas. Because of this, there is an influx of migrants from rural areas to the cities, creating huge slums that become an enduring feature of these cities. ”
How demographic change affects the economy
Both Fofack and Mberu are sure that in In the long term, Africa’s population growth will boost the continent’s economy and increase its political relevance.
Societies in high-income countries are expected to age the next three to four decades. By 2050 it will be one in four people in Europe and North America old 65 or older, but mMore than half of Africans will be under 25 years old.
“An aging population is usually bad news for a country’s economy. It means productivity falls and healthcare spending rises,” he said fofack .
Likewise, countries where the majority of people are of working age are favorable places for investment, he added. “We know that working-age people consume more, but their consumption and spending slows as they retire,” he said.
With the right investment plans, resource-rich Africa can accommodate a much larger populationImage: Adrien Barbier/AFP
The world needs Africa’s youth
Even if local governments don’t create enough jobs for everyone, some of the continent’s population will have the opportunity to migrate elsewhere, to countries in dire need of younger workers, Fofack said. “This process has already started decades ago, and some countries [outside Africa] have avoided a demographic downturn thanks to migrants,” he added.
Migration also gives workers the opportunity to improve their skills in the host countries and then bring new techniques and know-how back to their home countries. “Not to mention the remittances, the money that the diaspora sends home to help their families, which today accounts for a large part of the income of some countries,” Mberu stressed.
“To me, the imbalance is pretty obvious [between populations] will also reduce global income inequality”, said Fofack, pointing to Europe as an example.
“The economies of southern Europe, such as Portugal and Spain, have benefited significantly from the EU’s free movement of workers, as unemployed people have been able to find work and bring their savings home in northern countries,” he said.
The world economy is already dependent on Africa, mainly for its rich resources, but the continent’s share of world trade remains small at just 3%.
If current demographic changes continue to follow the same patterns, dependency on Africa is likely to increase, potentially giving the continent leverage to correct current imbalances.
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Edited by: Rob Mudge
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