Immigration is a hot, often contentious issue with many sides, including the costs to states and cities of accommodating newcomers. But there are also advantages for the economy.
The Congressional Budget Office recently examined the rise in immigration and found that immigrants were critical to filling jobs that employers were struggling to fill. Marketplace Senior Economics Associate Chris Farrell took a close look at the analysis and discussed it with Marketplace Morning Report host David Brancaccio. Below is an edited transcript of their conversation.
Chris Farrell: The CBO released some updated numbers. And the agency's economists now estimate that immigrants will contribute $7 trillion to gross domestic product over the next decade. Federal tax revenue will be about a trillion US dollars higher than previously expected.
David Brancaccio: One industry where the impact of migrant workers is particularly felt right now is healthcare, right? There is a current and even future shortage of doctors and nurses in the healthcare system.
Farrell: You're absolutely right, David. So there are almost 2.8 million immigrants employed in healthcare in 2021. And that accounts for about 18% of healthcare workers. This data comes from the Migration Policy Institute. So foreign-born health professionals come here through various legal mechanisms. And chances are good that the role of immigrants in healthcare will only increase in the coming years and decades, thanks largely to the combination of low U.S. birth rates and an aging population.
Brancaccio: And sticking with healthcare, what else did you notice when looking at the data?
Farrell: Let's look at the role of foreign-born doctors and surgeons. These are highly skilled immigrants who carry out around 26% of professional activity across the country. Places that rely heavily on foreign-born doctors and surgeons include New Jersey at 37%, Florida at 35% and New York at 33%. And you know, maybe these numbers aren't all that surprising given that these are traditional gateway states. But North Dakota's numbers are essentially in line with the national average.
Brancaccio: Well, that's interesting. North Dakota doesn't have a particularly large immigrant population in general, does it?
Farrell: No, not these days. I mean, only about 5% of North Dakotans were born in another country. Immigrant healthcare professionals are critical to a state struggling with workforce shortages. Joshua Wynne – he's dean of the University of North Dakota School of Medicine and Health Sciences – looks at the doctors and says foreign-born doctors and native-born people who got their medical degrees from a non-American institution really helped have to fill positions in primary care, internal medicine and family medicine.
Brancaccio: Still, there are native-born applicants – they compete for jobs and are afraid that skilled immigrants will get the jobs, but they don't.
Farrell: You know, that's always a cause for concern. But immigrant employment is not a zero-sum game. Dean Wynne points to the benefits of international medical school graduates. At the same time, however, he is quick to add that North Dakota has also managed to train more of its own faculty and improve retention of the state's medical school graduates. And his experience underpins an economic study by three economists. Their conclusion: “An expansion of the supply of foreign doctors due to a more flexible migration policy had no discernible impact on the employment of US-trained doctors.” That's fine with me.
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