A new Reuters/Ipsos poll is one of the few in recent memory to provide good news for President Joe Biden. Although Biden trails Donald Trump by two points in a hypothetical matchup — 38 percent to 36 percent, with 26 percent unsure or planning to vote for someone else in the Dec. 5-11 poll — the president has a four-point lead in seven points Point swing states.
Whatever the polls say today, political history suggests that what will matter more tomorrow is how the American economy is doing. Analysts at Goldman Sachs note that “often the strongest statistical connection is with the election outcome.” [economic] Variables measured in the second quarter of the election year.” Additionally, they explain: “Inflation appears to be less predictive of election outcomes than growth and labor market variables.”
Given that inflation, not jobs and growth, has been America's biggest economic problem recently, that's good news for Biden. This may also be true: Incumbents serving their first term traditionally win re-election unless there is a recession.
More good news for Biden: Goldman Sachs economists predict the recession will only change by 15 percent next year, and the JPMorgan team is also optimistic:
Overall, the labor market continues to look healthy, although trends in net hiring and wage growth have moderated somewhat recently. While there may be some curvature in the economy, we don't see many signs of a recession slipping and continue to believe that the Fed will be able to provide a soft landing for the economy.
One caveat: Economic forecasting is difficult, especially when it comes to the future. Second caveat: We live in a strange time—simultaneous wars in the Middle East and Europe, a current pandemic, and voters' concerns about the oldest president ever—that could upset historical patterns.
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