Long-term planning to chart the path to becoming a “developed country” by 2047 has begun. This should also include strengthening our institutional capacity to predict/avoid climate adversities. At the moment we only respond retrospectively.
Climate variability is increasing. For example, Dubai only receives an average of 80mm of rainfall over the course of a year, but this week alone 254.8mm of rainfall fell in less than 24 hours – a historic first!
A single cuckoo call doesn't necessarily mean summer. Yet types of climate crises (from forest fires to cloudbursts) appear to be increasing everywhere. Air travelers are now experiencing far more turbulence than before, and cyclones – once a rarity – are now widespread even in the previously calm Arabian Sea!
The causes can be varied. It could be due to human-caused global warming, as climate activists say; Or it could be part of a natural order of things, as climate skeptics often claim. After all, ice ages came and went even when there was no human activity. Whatever the cause, we must prepare for troubling eventualities. If low-rainfall areas are flooded, the opposite problem to droughts in historically rainy areas could arise.
The issue that needs our attention is a very different issue than the green economy, a contentious area even in the European Union, where opposition to additional green legislation is already underway. The resistance began, as is common with most discontent movements, with farmers' protests. The sudden end to diesel subsidies for agricultural vehicles was the original provocation. But now the discontent appears to have gone deeper – it's about “metropolitan elites imposing their urban values on rural communities.”
Meanwhile, European companies, struggling to cope with Chinese competition even in their traditional areas of leadership, are expressing similar dissatisfaction. Industry used to be the EU's biggest supporter. But the new laws, such as the “Net Zero” or the “Human Rights” law, bring with them new bureaucracy. Compliance requires the creation of dedicated legal teams, a new cost center. Politicians are learning that there are votes to be won against green politics, globalization, etc.
Elsewhere, Donald Trump's economic thinking had already begun to influence US politics and could gain further momentum in the coming months. Instead, we must examine our ability to withstand possible climate change. It's about strengthening our societal resilience to the likelihood of increasingly unpredictable weather conditions.
India has so far been blessed with abundant water availability. Our annual rainfall is 1,080 mm. This is much higher than the global average, although admittedly the distribution is not even. In the eastern states (as well as in Bangladesh) there is significantly higher rainfall. In comparison, the USA, China and Pakistan are significantly behind with only 715, 645 and 494 mm respectively. Therefore, we are somewhat wasteful consumers of water. Our annual water consumption has been documented at 761 cubic kilometers (World Bank, 2012). China consumes 603 cubic kilometers despite having a much higher GDP. The USA uses even less at 485 cubic kilometers.
Despite this apparent adequacy, reports of society's inability to cope with fluctuations in water supplies are already emerging. Stories of water shortages in Bengaluru, the nerve center of our technology services exports, are well known. There have always been disputes over sharing of water between Karnataka/Tamil Nadu or Punjab/Haryana/Delhi. However, water disputes are now increasingly localized. A woman was recently killed in a fight over water in Delhi. Stories like this keep coming up.
It's worth noting that the US actually reduced its water consumption by 0.7% over the last three decades and China, despite massive industrialization, limited growth to 0.9%, but our consumption grew faster at about 2.1% (database of the World Bank). Most of our “million-plus” cities are “inland” rather than “coastal/near-coastal,” so increasing supply through desalination processes, as Chennai has successfully demonstrated, is usually not possible. Water recycling systems are growing relatively slowly due to unequal financial and managerial constraints. The powers, autonomy and funding granted to our local governments are meager compared to those in the United States and China. We also have very few churches.
The challenge we face can be divided into two parts. The first is to improve the efficiency of our water use, particularly in agriculture. and the other is to create mechanisms to deal with adverse fluctuations in availability, particularly for domestic use.
Water consumption in Indian agriculture is much higher (688 cubic kilometers versus 388 in China and 175 in the US), mainly due to the greater weight of sugarcane and rice (both are water guzzlers, especially sugarcane) and partly due to lower water consumption in micro-irrigation systems/sheltered agricultural systems practices. These need to be generalized at least for these two crops through an appropriate combination of tax incentives/penalties and increased use of cultivators. The regular availability of on-site advisory services is crucial. Perhaps closer monitoring of usage in water stress belts could begin first.
Improving efficiency in water supply/use is best achieved by expanding and strengthening our municipalities with greater financial/administrative autonomy, as China has done – over 50% of its total government spending comes through local authorities. The US and EU have always given cities considerable power and autonomy. We need to adapt these best practices. Water use planning is best managed locally through effective decentralization.
(Published on April 20, 2024, 9:29 pm IST)
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