Joel Embiid and James Harden provide some intriguing ESPN NBA player props on Wednesday night. The suddenly sinister 76ers try to beat up the Knicks again. Then two injured teams meet while the Blazers and Suns battle without their star point guards.
Throughout the season, TheLines will be looking at a few matchups for the televised tables each week and trying to figure out if there are any ESPN NBA player prop bets worth checking out. You can also search for ESPN NBA player props using our tool below.
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Click on the odds anywhere in this post to bet now. If some prop markets are not yet open for these players, the player tiles indicate futures markets. Check again later if this is the case.
The New York Knicks at the Philadelphia 76ers
These two teams met just a few days ago in the second game of the partnership between Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Sixers won 125-109 in New York as the two Superstars combined for 66 points.
The duo’s early returns look somewhat decent. Through 113 possessions combined they logged in +43.1 difference per 100 possessions, and they shot 59 free throws together. The Knicks had absolutely nothing for Embiid that game, sending him to the line 27 times.
Philly’s new starter five — Harden, Embiid, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey and Matisse Thybulle — looks like it’ll contain a pretty scary mix of shooting and defense. The Knicks will have to do their job as sizable underdogs in need of some adjustments.
Mitchell Robinson and Evan Fournier props
Knicks players are already in a less than ideal place to field a big number against a slow opponent who’s playing good defense. But one player in a particularly bad position is Mitchell Robinson.
The talented young big man drew Joel Embiid into the line of duty and his “defense” consisted mostly of desperate hacking. Robinson is a good defender in some ways, but he’s not strong on post-defense. He improved his foul rate from cruel to a medium number but, as mentioned earlier, still had no response to Embiid. He fouled in just 17 minuteswith six points and four rebounds.
Unfortunately, the market will likely take this recent lackluster performance into account when Robinson’s props are released. But be ready when they open near its normal numbers.
Evan Fournier actually had a good game the last time these sides met, but he’s struggling here too. He relies heavily on bombing from deep, with a whopping 60% of his field goal attempts coming from long range. He got away with 11 3s last time, but that looks like an anomaly as the Sixers defend the 3-point arc very well.
See if the market overvalues its recent good play.
Joel Embiid and James Harden Props
As previously mentioned, Embiid expects to have a big day if the Knicks don’t change anything. Robinson’s backup, Jericho Sims, fared no better as he was also fouled in 18 minutes.
One would think that New York would drastically change its coverage plan here. Maybe they won’t – Tom Thibodeau is notoriously married to his system – but that seems pretty untenable.
When the Knicks decide to throw more bodies and try to confuse Embiid or make him more of a passer, Harden benefits the most. The Knicks are already struggling to defend the 3-point line and allow for the third most tries in the league per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning The Glass.
If we had to guess, we’d think he’s in line for a bigger game than Embiid, but it all depends on the Knicks’ plan here.
Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns
Another week, another Portland Trail Blazers prime time game to endure.
Both teams have serious injury concerns. As we’ve highlighted here, things got dire for the Blazers late last week -9.5 per 100 possessions in minutes that featured Anfernee Simons but none of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, or Jusuf Nurkic.
All of those players obviously remain unavailable, and that number will only have gotten worse after blowout losses to Golden State and Denver. At this point, there just aren’t enough NBA bodies left for Portland, and the rest of the reason is up against the wall (it’s called “tanking”).
However, even without Chris Paul, Phoenix has some unobtrusive issues. Lineups with Devin Booker, but not Paul, are only +2.4 per 100, according to Cleaning The Glass. Both offense and defense are significantly worse. This is the second year in a row that the team has been worse than normal in this situation, so it seems unlikely that it’s the result of a fluke.
Anfernee Simon’s props
Portland is just a very difficult team to hamper in the prop markets right now because we can’t know for sure how bad they are until we have a larger sample size. There is a wider than normal spread of possible outcomes as each game could turn into a 30-point blowout. This is especially true during prime time, when on average they face stronger opponents.
Ultimately, due to these potential blowouts, we’re more likely to see a left rear (underside) bias in this distribution. There will be games like the last two where the starters don’t crack 30 minutes.
The biggest numbers are attributed to Anfernee Simons, so this is the first place to look for an under. But again, it’s hard to say because the loss of Chris Paul will hurt the elite Phoenix defense.
Props by Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton
The same principle that can bring Portland players to their knees can do the same with Phoenix players. Remember the suns are Favorites here, so they win by about 20 quite often.
Portland has a very, very bad defense — it’s probably the worst in the league now — so it’s there anyway.
Devin Booker will be the natural look for many bettors here as he is now the clear centerpiece of Phoenix’s offense. He’s certainly capable of a big game against any team, especially one that can’t guard the door. But even the left tail cannot be discounted.
A more interesting game could be rebounds and points overs for Deandre Ayton. The sometimes overlooked center bounces faster than average and scores very efficiently when given the chance.
Basically, when you look at Portland’s roster, there isn’t a big man left to resist. The Blazers underperformed defending the edge in both allowing tries and converting, and that’s when they had a center with a pulse. Good luck, Trendon Watford and Greg Brown.
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